12월 FOMC 원문보기 (2)

 

 

Summary of Economic Projections,

the median projection for real GDP growth stands at just 0.5 percent

this year and next, well below the median estimate of

the longer-run normal growth rate. Despite the slowdown in growth,

the labor market remains extremely tight, with the

unemployment rate near a 50-year low, job vacancies still very high,

and wage growth elevated. Job gains have been robust,

with employment rising by an average of 272,000 jobs per month

over the last three months.

 

Although job vacancies have moved below their highs and

the pace of job gains has slowed from earlier in the year,

the labor market continues to be out of balance,

with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers.

The labor force participation rate is little changed since

the beginning of the year.

 

- 2페이지가 시작되는 여기도 뭐 별거 없다. 미국의 경제 상황을 이야기하고 있다.

미국의 경제를 보면 올해 실직 GDP가 0.5% 성장해 불과하고 장기적인 관점에서 보면

이 수치는 크게 낮은 상황이다. 

또한 노동 시장 또한 안 좋다. 50년만엔 최저치에 가까운 실업률을 기록하고 있고

일자리의 공백은 매우 높으면 임금은 상승했다.

 

고용은 월 평균 270.000명 증가하며 건조한 모습을 보이고 있다. 

노농 시장의 참여율은 연초와 비슷한 상황이다. 

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FOMC participants

expect supply and demand conditions in the labor market to

come into better balance over time, easing upward pressures

on wages and prices.

The median projection in the SEP for the unemployment rate

rises to 4.6 percent at the end of next year.

 

Inflation remains well above our longer-run goal of 2 percent.

Over the 12 months ending in October,

 

total PCE prices rose 6 percent; excluding

the volatile food and energy categories,

core PCE prices rose 5 percent.

 

In November,

the 12-month change in the CPI was 7.1 percent, and

the change in the core CPI was 6 percent.

 

The inflation data received so far for October and

November show a welcome reduction

in the monthly pace of price increases.

 

But it will take substantially more evidence to give confidence that

inflation is on a sustained downward path.

Price pressures remain evident across a broad range of

goods and services.

 

Russia’s war against Ukraine has boosted prices for energy and food and

has contributed to upward pressure on inflation.

 

- 여기는 중요한 문구가 많이 있습니다.

필자의 해석보다 원문을 바로 보여드리는 이유가 여기에 있습니다.

사람마다 바라보는 관점에 따른 해석이 다를 수 있으니까요.

 

- 하지만 원문 그대로 해석해보겠습니다. 

FOMC 참가자들은 수요와 공급에 의해서 노동시장의 더 나은 환경을 기대한다. 

인플레이션은 우리가 가지고 있는 목표치보다 훨씬 높다. 

 

- 10월 총 PCE는 6% 올랐다.

변동성이 심한 식품과 에너지를 제외하고는 핵심 PCE는 5% 올랐다. 

11월 CPI는 7.1%다. 코어 CPI는 6%다. CPI의 감소는 환영할만한 일이다.

하지만 시간이 오래 걸릴 것이다. 또한 우리는 인플레이션이 지속적으로 하락하고 있다는

많은 증거를 가지고 있다. 하지만 소비재에 대한 가격 압박은 여전히 많이 남아 있는 상황이다. 

러시아와 우크라이나 전쟁이 식량과 에너지 가격을 많이 올렸다. 

 

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The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is

5.6 percent this year  and falls to 3.1 percent next year,

2.5 percent in 2024, and 2.1 percent in 2025;

participants continue to see risks to inflation as

weighted to the upside.

 

- 올해 PCE는 5.6%다. 2023년에는 3.1% 2024년에는 2.5% 2025년에는 2.1%로 감소한다.

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Despite elevated inflation,

longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored,

as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses,

and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets.

But that is not grounds for complacency;

the longer the current bout of high inflation continues,

the greater the chance

that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched.

 

The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate

to promote maximum employment and stable prices for

the American people.

 

My colleagues and I are acutely aware that

high inflation imposes significant hardship as

it erodes purchasing power, especially for

those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food,

housing, and transportation.

 

- 여기서부터 3페이지가 시작된다. 여기에는 별 내용은 없다. 

미국의 높은 인플레이션에도 불구하고 장기적인 관점에서는 잘 유지되고 있다. 

리테일 시장에서 보듯 가구 사업체 금융 등등.. 뭐 좋다.

 

하지만 높은 인플레이션이 고착화 되서는 안 된다. 그것을 막는 게 FED의 역할이다.  

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We are highly attentive to the risks that

high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate,

and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to

our 2 percent objective.

 

At today’s meeting the Committee raised

the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point,

 

bringing the target range to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent.

And we are continuing

the process of significantly reducing the size of our balance sheet.

With today’s action,

we have raised interest rates by 4-1/4 percentage points this year.

 

We continue to anticipate that ongoing increases

in the target range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate

in order to attain a stance of monetary policy

that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.

Over the course of the year,

financial conditions have tightened significantly

in response to our policy actions.

 

Financial conditions fluctuate in the short term in response to many factors,

but it is important that over time they reflect the policy restraint

we are putting in place to return inflation to 2 percent.

We are seeing the effects on demand in the most interest-sensitive sectors

of the economy, such as housing.

It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary

restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.

 

- 여기도 중요 문구가 몇 개 있으니 눈 여겨 보길 바란다. 

우리는 높은 인플레이션 리스크에 대해서 항상 눈여겨 보고 있다. 또한 우리는 2%의 인플레이션을

만들기 위해서 강력한 의지를 가지고 있다. 오늘 12월 FOMC에서 0.5bp 금리를 인상했다. 

우리의 목표치를 만들기 위해서 우리의 행동은 지속될 것이다. 

 

우리니는  FED의 목표치 범위에서 지속적으로 기준 금리를 증가시킬 것이다. 

이는 우리가 생각하는 충분한 통화 정책 상황에 도달하기 위해서다.

주택이나 이자등 민감한 부분에서의 시간이 걸릴 것으로 보이나 우리가 생각하는 

규제에 대한 정책의 변화는 없을 것이다. 

 

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 of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy and the lags with

which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation,

the Committee decided to raise interest rates by 50 basis points today,

a step down from the 75-basis point pace seen over

the previous four meetings.

Of course, 50 basis points is still a historically large increase,

and we still have some ways to go. As shown in the SEP,

the median projection for

 

the appropriate level of the federal funds rate is 5.1 percent at the end of next year,

1/2 percentage point higher than projected in September.

 

The median projection is 4.1 percent at the end of 2024 and 3.1 percent

at the end of 2025, still above the median estimate of its longer-run value.

Of course, these projections do not represent a Committee decision or plan,

and no one knows with any certainty where

the economy will be a year or more from now.

Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and

their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.

 

And we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting and

communicate our thinking as clearly as possible.

We are taking forceful steps to moderate demand so

that it comes into better alignment with supply.

 

Our overarching focus is using our tools to bring inflation back down to

our 2 percent goal and to keep longer-term inflation

expectations well anchored.

 

Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of

below-trend growth and some softening of labor market conditions.

 

Restoring price stability is essential to set the stage

for achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run.

The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.

 

We will stay the course, until the job is done. To conclude,

we understand that our actions affect communities, families,

and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission.

We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and

price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.